Das ist mal eine super Analyse.
One of the things that does more to convince me of his guilt than almost anything else is how stunningly lame the OP apologetics are on this thread. Not a single, solitary good point from a "supporter" (for want of a better word) - not a one.
Most people are responding to the actual evidence that's being presented in court - with a smaller group using sarcastic and patronising remarks about the posts of others, without even attempting to address the evidence for themselves. Very telling, and very persistent. Bizarrely, these people are apparently patting themselves on the back for being "open minded"! If being open minded means frantically searching for any possible explanation to explain away the Grand Canyon sized holes in OP's testimony, then yes, you are all very open minded. That isn't usually what it means, though.
And, in the interests of justice, I really, really hope that certain people will try to get themselves excused if they are ever called for jury duty. The lack of logic and critical thinking is painfully absent. "We will never know if Reeva screamed or not.....so it's irrelevant"! Yes, somebody actually said that.
Well, here's some thing else we will never know......whether OP knew Reeva was in the toilet or not. So it's irrelevant, eh? Case dismissed!
No evidence is ever, ever, ever 100% reliable. That's why it's all about probabilities. Is it probable that Reeva screamed? According to Saayman, yes. According to Botha - yes, if she was frightened already and "primed" for danger. Sorry, but the fact is....she probably screamed. I can't imagine what tortured thought process gets someone to "It's not relevant, as we'll never know". Actually, yes I can.....and "open mindedness" is not it.
So, according to OP's "perfectly plausible account"......
A) The fans were not out on the balcony, so no need to go out there. They were half in the room. In order to get out of bed during the time he's bringing them in (with his back to the room) Reeva either had to shift her way across the bed and get out of his side, or get out of her own side and walk within inches of him to get past. He heard and saw nothing of any of this?
B) His initial reason for waking and getting the fans in at all was because he was hot. Rather odd that he would then immediately close the black out curtains making the room instantly hotter, isn't it?
C) It's pitch black - but he can see jeans on the floor via the LED light. So not pitch black then? Obviously provides enough light to 1) see jeans and 2) be bothersome when trying to sleep. Just not enough light to notice your 5ft7 girlfriend walking last you to go the toilet?
D) He hears the bathroom window opening - knows exactly what it is and doesn't need to stand there and listen for more sounds? No part of his mind thinks...."What was that?" A truly terrifying event is happening in the next room (intruder/s!) and he says not a solitary word to his girlfriend who is awake and feet away?
E) He puts his hand in the bed to feel his way round, failing to notice that there's no one in it. He wobbles past his legs - the one thing that would make him feel instantly less vulnerable, and which takes seconds to put on (there's a YT vid showing this, and he slips his stumps into the hollowed out leg - no straps or ties). He also walks straight past his means of escape - the door which he and Reeva could have been through and potentially safe within about 5 seconds.
F) He gets the gun and then whispers to Reeva to get down - doesn't notice her lack of response either verbally or physically. Doesn't find that fact that she doesn't instantly leap out of bed odd? He doesn't glance over to see that she's finding a safe place to hide?
G) He's too scared to put on the lights or speak above a whisper - seconds before deciding to scream at the intruders to get out?
H) It then dawns on him that screaming out his position is not wise as the "intruders" will know he's coming.....because the scream a moment before wouldn't have clued them in?
I) Reeva, on the other hand, is too scared in the toilet to utter a word in case the intruders know where she is, so promptly slams the door instead.
J) OP trembling makes his way slowly into the toilet to confront the intruders who know he is coming because he's conveniently told them.
Just a pause to ask....if this had been a real situation and there really were armed intruders in the bathroom, what would have happened to Oscar if he'd done all this? He'd have been shot dead instantly - they would have been waiting for him, and seen him before he could see them. This was a suicide mission, nothing less. No one in their right mind would have behaved like this - no one....least of all a frightened, disabled man on stumps who was desperately trying to save the life of the woman he loved. Did not happen, people. No way.
K) He spends quite some time standing at the bathroom door screaming. No peep from Reeva - who lest we forget, has the advantage over OP because she KNOWS there's no intruder in the bathroom, she was in it moments before. So his "screaming" managed to convince her that a bad man had materialised out of nowhere - at no point did this law graduate put 2 and 2 together and realise the mistake?
L) Another sound has OP putting FOUR bullets through the door. FOUR. "I don't even know why I shot" explains one, it does not explain four. And all the evidence suggests he shot once, moved his position and then shot another three times. This was not a moment of panic, it was four moments of panic. His actions were deliberate, and I struggle to see how anyone could believe otherwise.
M) After the rigmarole of finding out is was probably Reeva in the loo, he spent 15 minutes screaming, shouting and crying about it. 15 minutes. He doesn't call anyone, press the panic alarm, try to get into the toilet....he just screams and shouts to "The Lord" to help him.
N) Finally realising that he needs to help his probably badly hurt girlfriend, he smashes the door and prises out the panels. He sees the key on the floor and tells us that he reaches for it because he desperately needs to get the door open to see if it's Reeva. Did he forget to look through the now panel free door to see that?
M) She's not breathing he says. Odd because in his previous affidavit he specifically says she was slumped over the toilet but alive. Alive people aren't generally breathing - so which is it? Given that he's so distraught to find her not breathing that he cries over her for some time, it seems remarkably peculiar that this translated into "slumped over but alive" in affidavit signed days after the event.
O) He's so distraught over her not breathing that he calls a neighbour who has no medical expertise at all.
P) Reeva is a biological miracle, however, because not only does her stomach have the remarkable ability to hold on to food eaten 8 hours earlier, her heart is able to continue beating for 20 minutes after she stops breathing. We know this because of the arterial blood spatter found in the little sitting room downstairs. For the hard of thinking......arterial spatter needs a beating heart, even a weakly beating one. A stilled heart cannot pump blood out of an artery.
On what planet is all of this this remotely plausible? The same planet where episodes of scaring your girlfriend, demeaning her so she "doesn't feel like a lady", calling her a stripper and a ho (oh yes he did - that's the only sensible explanation for that text), having tantrums in front of people and getting angry because she mentions an ex in passing is all "part of a perfectly normal relationship"?
Based entirely and only on the evidence, this man is very, very probably guilty. And I can only assume that those who are desperate to convince themselves that he's not are so desperate to be "right" that they are willing to abandon all common sense.
The wailing today was wonderful. We now have several million people across the globe who can testify that they have heard OP wailing and he sounds like a man. As if anyone with a brain ever doubted it.
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=240477&page=44
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